- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.59 – 33.605 this morning, supportive level at 33.50 resistance level at 33.70
- SET Index: 1,630.21 (+0.26%), 15 July 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,572.40 (+0.38%), 15 July 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.042 (-2.91 bps), 15 July 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.55 (-3.00 bps), 15 July 2026
- US PPI undershoots, reinforcing easing inflation trend
- Geopolitical risks remain elevated amid ongoing US-Iran conflict
- China’s GDP growth unexpectedly dips below official target range
- China’s June data show mixed momentum
- Dollar weakens further after benign PPI reinforces cooling inflation
US PPI undershoots, reinforcing easing inflation trend
June producer inflation came in softer than expected, reinforcing the benign inflation signal from this week’s CPI report. Headline PPI fell 0.3% m/m (vs. +0.3% expected), reversing May’s sharp increase and bringing annual producer inflation down to 5.5% y/y from 6.5%. Core PPI also undershot expectations, rising 0.2% m/m (vs. +0.4% expected), while super core PPI increased just 0.1% m/m, indicating broad-based easing in underlying price pressures. The PPI components feeding into the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure were generally encouraging, supporting expectations that June PCE inflation will moderate further.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated amid ongoing US-Iran conflict
Crude prices traded choppily before closing slightly higher as persistent US-Iran tensions remained the key driver. President Trump warned that Iran’s bridges and energy facilities could become targets if Tehran refuses to return to negotiations, although he said energy infrastructure would only be struck as a last resort. The US also launched another wave of strikes against Iranian military targets, while Iran’s chief negotiator Ghalibaf signalled that diplomacy remains an option alongside military action, raising hopes for a potential return to talks.
China’s GDP growth unexpectedly dips below official target range
China’s economy grew more slowly than expected in Q2 2026, as weak domestic demand offset resilient exports. GDP rose 4.3% y/y (vs. 4.5% expected), slowing from 5.0% in Q1, while quarterly growth eased to 0.9% q/q from 1.3%. Despite the slowdown, first-half growth of 4.7% remains broadly in line with the government’s full-year target range of 4.4%–4.8%.
China’s June data show mixed momentum
Industrial production rose a stronger-than-expected 5.3% y/y, while retail sales unexpectedly increased 1.0% after May’s decline, supported by stronger non-auto spending. However, fixed-asset investment remained weak, falling 5.7% in the first half of the year, reflecting continued softness in property-related investment. Meanwhile, the urban unemployment rate edged down to 5.0% from 5.1% in May.
Dollar weakens further after benign PPI reinforces cooling inflation
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.042, -2.91 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.01, -3.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.55, -3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.55, moving in a range of 33.59 – 33.605 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.50 – 33.70 today. The US dollar weakened after softer-than-expected PPI reinforced the benign CPI report, boosting expectations that inflation will continue to ease and leaving markets pricing only around one 25bp Fed rate hike by year-end. Fed officials maintained a cautious tone, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East had little impact on FX markets as inflation remained the dominant driver. Against this backdrop, the euro strengthened on broad dollar weakness, the British pound outperformed on expectations of a more fiscally conservative UK government, while the Japanese yen ended little changed after a volatile session.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
