- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.46 – 33.50 this morning, supportive level at 33.36 resistance level at 33.56
- SET Index: 1,576.25 (-1.74%), 8 July 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,482.71 (-0.28%), 8 July 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.986 (+1.82 bps), 8 July 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.56 (+1.00 bps), 8 July 2026
- Geopolitical risks surge as US-Iran tensions intensify
- Fed minutes echo hawkish tone as officials differ on economic outlook
- RBNZ delivers expected rate hike, maintains hawkish bias
- BOT sees stronger growth as key to policy normalization
- Dollar eases despite rising middle east tensions
Geopolitical risks surge as US-Iran tensions intensify
Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalated sharply on Wednesday, keeping markets on edge. President Trump adopted an increasingly hawkish tone, declaring the ceasefire effectively over, signalling the US could launch further military strikes, and threatening to reinstate the blockade. Meanwhile, reports suggested Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, expand retaliatory attacks in response to further US action, and suspend negotiations with Washington.
Fed minutes echo hawkish tone as officials differ on economic outlook
The June FOMC Minutes largely reinforced the meeting’s hawkish tone, showing policymakers were divided mainly over the economic outlook rather than policy strategy. While a few saw a case for a rate hike, they ultimately backed holding rates in June. Most viewed resilient labour markets and persistent inflation as warranting further tightening, whereas those expecting inflation to return to target favored holding or eventually cutting rates. Most participants also supported streamlining the policy statement and removing its easing bias.
RBNZ delivers expected rate hike, maintains hawkish bias
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the official cash rate by 25bps to 2.50%, in line with expectations, while signaling that further policy tightening is likely to return inflation to its 2% target midpoint. Although the committee unanimously agreed that monetary policy remains accommodative, it emphasized that the timing of future rate hikes remains highly uncertain.
BOT sees stronger growth as key to policy normalization
At the Monetary Policy Forum, the Bank of Thailand reiterated that the current accommodative monetary policy remains appropriate despite raising its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.3%, as the economy continues to expand below potential with growth concentrated in the technology sector. The BOT emphasized that policy normalization would require a more broad-based and sustained recovery, with GDP growth moving toward its estimated potential of around 2.7–3.0%, rather than being driven by a temporary rise in inflation. While inflation is expected to pick up in the near term due to higher energy prices, policymakers continue to view the increase as largely transitory, with medium-term inflation expectations remaining well anchored.
Dollar eases despite rising middle east tensions
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.986, +1.82 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 1.98, +3.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.56, +1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.39, moving in a range of 33.46 – 33.50 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.36 – 33.56 today. The US dollar edged lower against its major peers as risk appetite in FX markets remained resilient despite higher oil prices, rising global bond yields, and weaker equity markets. On the macro front, the June FOMC minutes had little impact on the greenback, largely reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish June message. The softer dollar supported both the euro and sterling, with EUR/USD reclaiming the 1.1400 level and GBP/USD briefly climbing above 1.3400 after rebounding from an intraday low of 1.3322. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen underperformed as higher US Treasury yields, driven by rising oil prices, continued to support carry trades, pushing USD/JPY to an intraday high of 162.71 before settling just below 162.50.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
