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Daily Market Insight: 25 June 2026

25 Jun 2026
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 33.39 – 33.46 this morning, supportive level at 33.28 resistance level at 33.52
  • SET Index: 1,548.22 (+0.48%), 24 June 2026
  • S&P 500 Index: 7,358.22 (-0.10%), 24 June 2026
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.083 (-2.23 bps), 24 June 2026
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 4.41 (-9.00 bps), 24 June 2026

 

  • Oil prices slip as Hormuz flows improve despite persistent geopolitical risks
  • Micron surges as AI demand drives stronger-than-expected outlook
  • Japan unveils ¥370tn investment plan to boost AI, chips and strategic industries
  • BoT keeps rate at 1.00% as growth improves, remains cautious on inflation risks
  • Dollar advances as safe-haven demand offsets lower yields

 

Oil prices slip as Hormuz flows improve despite persistent geopolitical risks

The crude market traded lower amid limited market-moving geopolitical developments despite a steady flow of headlines. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of improvement, with vessels gradually resuming transit, although a return to normal flows remains delayed by Iranian mines in the area. Meanwhile, Israel-Lebanon talks reportedly ended without progress, while Israel’s Defence Minister reaffirmed troops would remain in Southern Lebanon despite potential US pressure. On supply, Russia is expected to ship record crude volumes from western ports this month, while a major Moscow refinery is set to remain offline for at least six months following drone damage.

 

Micron surges as AI demand drives stronger-than-expected outlook

Micron Technology issued a stronger-than-expected sales outlook as AI-driven demand fueled component shortages and pushed prices higher. Shares jumped around 13% in after-hours trading following the results, extending gains after already more than tripling this year and outperforming major chip peers.

 

Japan unveils ¥370tn investment plan to boost AI, chips and strategic industries
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi introduced a long-term economic strategy centered on large-scale investments in AI, semiconductors, defense, space, and shipbuilding. The plan targets more than ¥370 trillion ($2.3 trillion) in investment over the 14 years through March 2041, including ¥101.6 trillion dedicated to AI and chip-related spending. Takaichi said the initiative aims to build a “strong and prosperous investment framework” to support Japan’s future growth.

 

BoT keeps rate at 1.00% as growth improves, remains cautious on inflation risks

The Bank of Thailand kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.00%, as expected. The BoT raised its GDP growth forecasts to 2.3% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027, citing resilient electronics exports, a smaller-than-expected impact from Middle East tensions, and support from the government’s THB400 billion stimulus package, while noting that growth remains below potential. Inflation forecasts were only marginally lowered, with headline CPI for 2026 revised to 2.8% and core CPI to 1.5%. Despite lowering its 2026 Dubai crude oil assumption to USD90/bbl, the BoT maintained a cautious inflation outlook, pointing to potential cost pass-through, geopolitical uncertainties, and El Niño-related food price risks in late 2026.

 

Dollar advances as safe-haven demand offsets lower yields

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.083, -2.23 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.06, -1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.41, -9.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.39, moving in a range of 33.39 – 33.46 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.28 – 33.52 today. Dollar strengthened broadly as subdued risk sentiment and elevated equity volatility supported demand for the dollar ahead of Micron earnings. Weak US housing data and limited geopolitical developments kept focus on upcoming GDP and Core PCE releases. The euro fell to around a one-year low, while the British pound remained under pressure below 1.3200 and the Japanese yen weakened gradually with USD/JPY holding near 161.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC