- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.67 – 32.69 this morning, supportive level at 32.55 resistance level at 32.75
- SET Index: 1,587.07 (-0.06%), 17 June 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,420.10 (-1.21%), 17 June 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.070 (-3.78 bps), 17 June 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.49 (+6.00 bps), 17 June 2026
- Fed holds rates steady, removes forward guidance
- Warsh reinforces hawkish Fed stance, signals policy framework review
- US retail sales beat expectations, signaling resilient US consumer demand
- UK inflation unexpectedly holds steady at 2.8% in May
- Dollar rallies as Fed delivers hawkish shift, markets price year-end hike
Fed holds rates steady, removes forward guidance
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75% as widely expected, with the decision and statement unanimously approved (12–0). The Committee removed explicit forward guidance, emphasizing its commitment to achieving price stability. It noted that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty, partly due to Middle East tensions. The Fed said labor market conditions remain broadly balanced, with job gains keeping pace with labor supply and unemployment little changed, while inflation remains elevated above the 2% target due partly to supply-driven price pressures, including energy. The revised SEP was also more hawkish, with the median projection now pointing to one rate hike this year compared with a previous expectation of one cut. Inflation forecasts were revised higher, while growth and unemployment projections for 2026 were lowered.
Warsh reinforces hawkish Fed stance, signals policy framework review
Warsh’s first press conference reinforced the Fed’s hawkish stance, with emphasis on returning inflation to target. He described the labour market as stable and said policy restrictiveness is uneven, with housing the main area showing tighter conditions. Warsh confirmed he did not submit a dot plot, citing limited usefulness, while noting officials are not bound by projections. He also announced five task forces to review communication, the balance sheet, data, productivity/AI, and the inflation framework, with potential changes to SEPs and Fed communication ahead.
US retail sales beat expectations, signaling resilient US consumer demand
US retail sales rose 0.9% M/M in May (exp. 0.5%, prev. 0.4% revised), beating expectations and signaling resilient consumer demand. The details remained strong, with ex-autos sales up 0.8% M/M and the control group rising 0.7% M/M. Gains were broad-based, led by gasoline stations, non-store retailers, and auto dealers, while food services and electronics declined.
UK inflation unexpectedly holds steady at 2.8% in May
UK inflation unexpectedly held steady at 2.8% Y/Y in May, below expectations of 3.0%, suggesting price pressures were softer than feared. Food prices helped contain inflation, while services inflation remained elevated at 3.7% and core CPI edged up to 2.6% Y/Y.
Dollar rallies as Fed delivers hawkish shift, markets price year-end hike
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.070, -3.78 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.07, -2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.49, +6.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.54, moving in a range of 32.67 – 32.69 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.55 – 32.75 today. The dollar strengthened after the FOMC as the Fed delivered a hawkish shift despite holding rates unchanged. The removal of forward guidance, stronger emphasis on price stability, and a dot plot showing 9 officials expecting at least one hike this year reinforced a higher-for-longer outlook through 2027. Warsh maintained the hawkish tone, pushing back on dovish expectations and suggesting the Fed’s focus remains on inflation rather than employment risks. The dollar index rose to 100.57 from 99.65, while markets returned to fully pricing a 25bp hike by year-end. EUR weakened below 1.1500 post-FOMC, GBP stayed pressured by softer inflation, and JPY declined as USD strengthened but remained around the 160 level.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
