- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.69 – 32.71 this morning, supportive level at 32.65 resistance level at 32.85
- SET Index: 1,594.79 (+0.42%), 4 June 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,584.31 (+0.41%), 4 June 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.251 (+3.22 bps), 4 June 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.47 (-2.00 bps), 4 June 2026
- Geopolitical developments remain in the spotlight
- US economic data takes a back seat
- Japan real wages extend gains for fourth month
- Dollar trades rangebound ahead of US NFP data
Geopolitical developments remain in the spotlight
Markets remained focused on diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the US and Iran following recent military confrontations. Optimism increased after President Trump said negotiations to end the conflict were in their “final stages,” sending crude prices to their lowest levels of the session. Although geopolitical newsflow was relatively quiet for much of the day, reports indicating that the US-Iran ceasefire remained in place added further downward pressure on oil. However, crude recovered part of its losses after Hezbollah rejected the US-backed Israel-Lebanon ceasefire proposal, prompting markets to reprice some regional geopolitical risk.
US economic data takes a back seat
US labour market data delivered mixed signals. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 225k, although continuing claims edged lower, suggesting layoffs remain contained and the labour market remains broadly stable. Challenger layoffs increased to 97k in May, the highest for the month since 2020, with technology firms accounting for a large share of cuts as AI-related restructuring continued to accelerate. Meanwhile, Q1 nonfarm productivity was revised sharply lower to 0.3%, while unit labour costs were also revised down to 1.8%. Despite softer quarterly figures, longer-term trends remain favourable. Meanwhile, Fed commentary had little impact on market sentiment. Daly maintained that policy remains appropriately positioned, while Schmid adopted a more hawkish stance, suggesting higher rates may be needed if inflation does not return toward target.
Japan real wages extend gains for fourth month
Japan’s real wages rose 1.9% YoY in April, marking a fourth consecutive monthly increase, supported by stronger bonus payments, solid nominal wage growth, and easing inflation. Total cash earnings increased 3.5%, the fastest pace since December 2024 and the third straight month above 3%, while regular pay remained robust and overtime pay accelerated. The data reinforces the BOJ’s view that a virtuous wage-price cycle is taking hold, supporting expectations for a rate hike later this month. Separately, household spending fell 0.5% YoY, a smaller decline than expected, while monthly spending rose 1.6%, suggesting consumer demand remains relatively resilient despite a fifth consecutive annual contraction.
Dollar trades rangebound ahead of US NFP data
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.251, +3.22 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.24, +5.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.47, -2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.68, moving in a range of 32.69 – 32.71 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.65 – 32.85 today. The US dollar traded modestly weaker against most G10 currencies, although the index remained rangebound as investors awaited Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Softer labour market signals, including a rise in jobless claims and challenger layoffs, weighed slightly on the greenback, while Fed commentary offered mixed signals, with Daly reiterating policy flexibility and Schmid maintaining a more hawkish stance on inflation risks. Geopolitical headlines continued to dominate newsflow, though developments were largely incremental. Elsewhere, the euro edged higher amid limited catalysts, the British pound traded sideways as BoE Governor Bailey’s remarks offered little fresh guidance, and the Japanese yen was broadly unchanged as markets continued to price in the possibility of a BoJ rate hike later this month.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
