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Daily Market Insight: 25 May 2026

25 May 2026
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 32.41 – 32.48 this morning, supportive level at 32.30 resistance level at 32.50
  • SET Index: 1,538.67 (+0.39%), 22 May 2026
  • S&P 500 Index: 7,473.47 (+0.37%), 22 May 2026
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.377 (-0.79 bps), 22 May 2026
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 4.56 (-1.00 bps), 22 May 2026

 

  • Progress in US-Iran talks supports market sentiment
  • Kevin Warsh sworn in as new Fed chair, Trump says wants him to be independent
  • Waller turns more hawkish, keeping the possibility of rate hikes on the table
  • German Ifo business sentiment unexpectedly rises
  • UK retail sales fall 1.3% in April on sharp drop in fuel demand
  • Dollar slips as hopes for US-Iran deal improve risk sentiment

 

Progress in US-Iran talks supports market sentiment

US President Donald Trump said a peace deal with Iran is nearing completion and the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon, although President Trump stressed there was “no rush” to finalize a deal. Axios reported a potential 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the strait, limited easing of oil sanctions, and follow-up nuclear talks, while Tehran offered mixed signals, with some officials citing progress but others dismissing the deal as “far from reality.”

 

Kevin Warsh sworn in as new Fed chair, Trump says wants him to be independent

Warsh was sworn into office as the 17th chair of the Fed and promised to bring "regime change" to the central bank, including shrinking the Fed's balance sheet and establishing a new framework for analyzing inflation. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump stated that he wants Kevin Warsh to be totally independent as the new chair of the Federal Reserve.

 

Waller turns more hawkish, keeping the possibility of rate hikes on the table

Fed Governor Waller struck a relatively hawkish tone, stating the Fed should remove its easing bias if inflation expectations become unanchored and that he would not hesitate to back a rate hike if inflation fails to ease, although he clarified he is not currently advocating tighter policy or expecting a near-term rate move.

 

German Ifo business sentiment unexpectedly rises

German business morale unexpectedly improved in May, with the Ifo business climate index rising to 84.9 from a revised 84.5 in April, beating expectations for a decline to 84.2. Firms reported slightly better assessments of current conditions, while the outlook also improved modestly, with the expectations index edging up to 83.8 from 83.5, indicating reduced pessimism about the months ahead.

 

UK retail sales fall 1.3% in April on sharp drop in fuel demand

British retail sales fell 1.3% in April, the sharpest decline in nearly a year and worse than expected, driven by a more than 10% drop in fuel sales after March stockpiling. Excluding fuel, sales edged down 0.4%, broadly in line with forecasts, with weakness across most categories except food.

 

Dollar slips as hopes for US-Iran deal improve risk sentiment

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.377, -0.79 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.38, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.56, -1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.66, moving in a range of 32.41 – 32.48 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.30 – 32.50 today. The dollar traded mixed against G10 currencies on Friday as markets remained focused on Middle East tensions ahead of further US-Iran talks over the weekend. Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment fell to a record low, with both one- and five-year inflation expectations rising. On Monday, the dollar slipped in early Asian trading as hopes of a Strait of Hormuz reopening pushed oil prices below $100 per barrel, despite the Trump administration downplaying prospects for a near-term Iran deal.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC