- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.98 – 32.02 this morning, supportive level at 31.90 resistance level at 32.20
- SET Index: 1,489.73 (-1.14%), 16 Apr 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,041.28 (+0.26%), 16 Apr 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.998 (-4.99 bps), 16 Apr 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.32 (+3.00 bps), 16 Apr 2026
- Israel and Lebanon agree to a 10-day ceasefire
- Eurozone inflation revised higher to 2.6% in March
- China GDP grows 5% in Q1, beats forecasts but momentum softens
- Thailand cuts 2026 growth outlook to 1.3%, warns of rising risks from prolonged war
- The dollar rebounds with higher oil prices despite positive geopolitics
Israel and Lebanon agree to a 10-day ceasefire
Donald Trump raised hopes of a broader deal with Iran, saying it was ready to hand over enriched uranium and offer unprecedented concessions. He also said he had productive talks with Lebanon’s President Aoun and Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, adding that both sides had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, and that he plans to invite the two leaders to the White House for their first meaningful talks.
Eurozone inflation revised higher to 2.6% in March
Eurozone inflation was revised up to 2.6% in March from 2.5%, pointing to stronger price pressures possibly linked to the Iran war. Core inflation was 2.3% and services inflation 3.2%. Despite market bets on two rate hikes in 2026, policymakers are leaning toward holding rates steady at their April 29–30 meeting.
China GDP grows 5% in Q1, beats forecasts but momentum softens
GDP grew 5% year-on-year, beating expectations of 4.8% and accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter. On a quarterly basis, growth rose 1.3%, slightly below forecasts of 1.4% but up from 1.2% in Q4 2025. Growth was driven by strong manufacturing and exports, while consumer spending and private investment continued to weaken, signaling an increasingly uneven recovery. In China, momentum softened toward the end of Q1, with fixed asset investment, retail sales, and industrial production all slowing or missing expectations, despite some areas still holding up better than forecast.
Thailand cuts 2026 growth outlook to 1.3%, warns of rising risks from prolonged war
Thailand’s central bank has cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.9%, warning of significant downside risks if the war persists, though the estimate assumes it ends later this year. Inflation is projected at 3.5%, while the current account outlook—previously a $12 billion surplus—may be revised lower and could even turn negative. Policymakers said interest rate hikes would only be considered if inflation remains elevated for more than a year, and even then, are not assured given their limited impact on supply-driven pressures.
The dollar rebounds with higher oil prices despite positive geopolitics
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.998, -4.99 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.00, -2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.32, +3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.93, moving in a range of 31.98 – 32.02 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.90 – 32.20 today. The dollar rebounded on Thursday alongside higher oil prices despite broadly positive geopolitical signals. With the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed, markets may need a fuller reopening before renewed pressure builds on the greenback. US-Iran talks remain unscheduled, though Donald Trump said Iran had agreed to hand over enriched uranium, potentially marking progress on key sticking points. US data had limited impact, with jobless claims and the Philly Fed index improving while industrial production disappointed. Fed commentary was mixed, as Miran scaled back his rate-cut outlook to three this year from four, while Williams said policy remains in a good place.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
