- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.955 – 32.00 this morning, supportive level at 31.80 resistance level at 32.10
- SET Index: 1,506.84 (+1.15%), 10 Apr 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,022.95 (+0.80%), 15 Apr 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.048 (+3.38 bps), 10 Apr 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.29 (+3.00 bps), 15 Apr 2026
- US–Iran tensions persist, but markets remain hopeful for a ceasefire
- IMF cuts global growth outlook amid oil shock and war risks
- US inflation misses forecasts but shows an upward trend amid high oil prices
- Chinese economic data show some signs of impact from Middle East tensions
- Thailand expects $950 million in revenue as tourists surge during Songkran
- The dollar falls overall this week amid improving risk sentiment
US–Iran tensions persist, but markets remain hopeful for a ceasefire
Trump launched a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after their talks broke down. Nonetheless, The US and Iran are preparing for a second round of peace talks in the coming days, with President Trump indicating discussions could resume within two days in Pakistan ahead of the ceasefire deadline. Meanwhile, US President Trump reiterated overnight the war is nearing an end, while reports of a two-week ceasefire extension were denied by both sides, with no outreach confirmed.
IMF cuts global growth outlook amid oil shock and war risks
The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3%, citing the impact of the US–Iran conflict, while maintaining a 3.2% outlook for 2027. The baseline assumes the conflict remains contained, with energy prices rising about 19% this year and effects easing by mid-2026; however, growth could drop to 2% in 2026–27 if tensions escalate and trigger rate hikes.
US inflation misses forecasts but shows an upward trend amid high oil prices
US CPI surged in March by the most in nearly four years as the war with Iran sent gasoline prices skyrocketing. The CPI rose 0.9% from February. On an annual basis, it was up 3.3%, the strongest pace since 2024. A record increase in gas prices was responsible for nearly three-quarters of the monthly advance. Core CPI increased at a slower-than-expected 0.2% pace, while yearly grew 2.6%. Meanwhile, March PPI rose 0.5% m/m, below forecasts and slower than prior, while the y/y rate came in at 4.0%.
Chinese economic data show some signs of impact from Middle East tensions
China’s PPI rose 0.5% in March, beating forecasts and rebounding from a 0.9% drop in February, marking their first annual increase since September 2022 amid higher global oil prices driven by Middle East tensions. CPI eased more than expected to 1.0%, with core CPI at 1.1%, as holiday-related spending faded. Meanwhile, export growth slowed sharply to 2.5%, while imports surged at the fastest pace since 2021, narrowing the trade surplus to $51 billion as high-tech purchases, including chips, jumped.
Thailand expects $950 million in revenue as tourists surge during Songkran
Thailand’s Tourism Authority expects Songkran to generate 30.4 billion baht ($950 million), up 6% from last year, driven by strong domestic and international travel. During April 11–15, it projects 500,000 foreign visitors and 5.96 million domestic trips.
The dollar falls overall this week amid improving risk sentiment
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.048, +3.38 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.02, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.29, +3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.17, moving in a range of 31.955 – 32.00 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.80 – 32.10 today. The dollar was broadly stable as risk-on momentum eased on mixed headlines, including unconfirmed reports of a possible short-term extension to the US–Iran ceasefire. Nonetheless, over the holiday period, the index gave back much of its earlier conflict-driven gains as diplomacy raised hopes for a resolution. Data and Fed comments had little FX impact. The euro traded indecisively around 1.1800 on ECB caution over an April hike, and the Japanese yen moved choppily near 159.00.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
