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Daily Market Insight: 26 March 2026

26 Mar 2026
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 32.78 – 32.83 this morning, supportive level at 32.70 resistance level at 33.00
  • SET Index: 1,457.91 (+3.37%), 25 Mar 2026
  • S&P 500 Index: 6,591.90 (+0.54%), 25 Mar 2026
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.185 (-5.02 bps), 25 Mar 2026
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 4.33 (-6.00 bps), 25 Mar 2026

 

  • Iran turns down US plan, complicating path to peace
  • Trump to visit China May 14-15 for summit with Xi
  • UK inflation holds at 3.0% in February ahead of energy price surge
  • Thailand scraps diesel price cap amid soaring oil costs
  • Dollar is supported by Iran standoff and month-end flows

 

Iran turns down US plan, complicating path to peace

Iran rejected a US-backed ceasefire proposal and signaled it would continue attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab states, dealing a setback to Washington’s push to end the war. Tehran instead outlined its own conditions, including guarantees against further US or Israeli strikes, reparations for war damage, and recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz. The US proposal reportedly calls for Iran to dismantle key nuclear facilities and limit its missile program to defensive use in exchange for concessions such as sanctions relief. Despite the impasse, the White House maintains that negotiations are ongoing, even as Iran publicly rebuffs US efforts and advances its own terms to resolve the conflict that has disrupted the Middle East and global markets.

 

Trump to visit China May 14-15 for summit with Xi

President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet in Beijing on May 14-15, after a delay caused by the Iran war. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Xi will visit Washington later this year and noted the administration had expected a roughly four- to six-week conflict. The summit will test Trump and Xi’s stance on trade, US support for Taiwan, and the fallout from US strikes on Iran that drove oil prices higher.

 

UK inflation holds at 3.0% in February ahead of energy price surge

UK inflation held at an 11-month low in February, with consumer prices rising 3%, matching expectations, before the Iran war sent fuel costs surging. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, ticked up to 3.2% from 3.1%, while services inflation eased slightly to 4.3%, its slowest pace since March 2022. Clothing costs rose to 0.9% from zero in January, adding upward pressure, offset by falling fuel inflation at -4.6% (from -2.2%) and a drop in food and drink inflation to 3.3%, the lowest since March 2025.

 

Thailand scraps diesel price cap amid soaring oil costs

Thailand has lifted its diesel price cap less than a month after the Middle East conflict began, highlighting how soaring global oil costs are straining emerging-market budgets. The government will let pump prices float after weeks of keeping local fuel prices artificially low drained the subsidy fund.

 

Dollar is supported by Iran standoff and month-end flows

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.185, -5.02 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.20, -4.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.33, -6.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.66, moving in a range of 32.78 – 32.83 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.70 – 33.00 today. The dollar strengthened to intraday highs as remarks from Iran’s Foreign Minister dampened optimism, with geopolitical uncertainty supporting the dollar despite steady US yields; stronger February trade price data and month-end rebalancing flows also pointed to broad USD buying across major currencies. Meanwhile, the euro drifted lower after slipping below 1.1600 as ECB rhetoric failed to provide support, the British pound fell past 1.3400 and did not gain traction despite an inflation report showing headline figures in line with expectations, and the Japanese yen weakened as the stronger dollar persisted alongside oil prices trimming earlier losses.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC