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Daily Market Insight: 18 March 2026

18 Mar 2026
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 32.31 – 32.36 this morning, supportive level at 32.20 resistance level at 32.45
  • SET Index: 1,433.88 (+2.05%), 17 Mar 2026
  • S&P 500 Index: 6,716.09 (+0.25%), 17 Mar 2026
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.115 (-0.54 bps), 17 Mar 2026
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 4.20 (-3.0 bps), 17 Mar 2026

 

  • Few major developments in Middle East news
  • Japan trade balance grows in Feb as exports rise more than expected
  • RBA hikes interest rates by 25 bps on inflation
  • Thailand hikes diesel price cap to 33 baht amid subsidy pressures
  • Dollar eases further as risk appetite improves

 

Few major developments in Middle East news

Donald Trump has reportedly dropped efforts to gather support for a possible conflict with Iran, criticizing NATO allies and partners like Japan, Australia, and South Korea for refusing to help. The US has also asked its diplomatic posts around the world to review security, according to The Washington Post. Meanwhile, Israel reportedly killed senior Iranian figures, including Ali Larijani and a Basij commander. Trump-appointed counterterrorism official Joe Kent resigned, saying Israel misled the president about Iran’s threat.

 

Japan trade balance grows in Feb as exports rise more than expected

Japan recorded an unexpected trade surplus of 57.3 billion yen ($360 million) in February, reversing a 1.16 trillion yen deficit in January, as strong exports to markets outside the U.S. and China offset weaker shipments to its top two trading partners. Exports rose 4.2% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 1.6% gain, led by automobiles, industrial equipment, electronics, and food. Imports grew 10.2%, below the anticipated 11.5% increase but rebounding sharply from a 2.6% decline the previous month.

 

RBA hikes interest rates by 25 bps on inflation

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25bps to 4.10%, in a split 5–4 decision. The RBA warned inflation may stay above target for longer, with risks skewed to the upside and short-term expectations already rising. It highlighted Middle East tensions as a key uncertainty, noting higher fuel prices could add to inflation if sustained, and reiterated it will remain data-dependent in future decisions.

 

Thailand hikes diesel price cap to 33 baht amid subsidy pressures

The Thai government will raise the domestic retail price of diesel to 33 baht per litre starting Wednesday, March 18, up from the previous cap of 29.94 baht, as part of efforts to manage national energy funds. The move comes amid mounting pressure on the Oil Fuel Fund, which faces a deficit exceeding 12 billion baht and limited borrowing capacity. To ease the impact on the transport and agricultural sectors, the government is also reviewing B20 biodiesel pricing to make it significantly cheaper than standard diesel.

 

Dollar eases further as risk appetite improves

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.115, -0.54 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.07, -7.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.20, -3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.43, moving in a range of 32.31 – 32.36 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.20 – 32.45 today. The dollar trimmed last week’s gains as improved risk sentiment offset a modest rebound in oil prices, with little fresh momentum ahead of the FOMC meeting and mixed US data. The euro edged back above 1.1500 on a softer dollar and minimal news, while the British pound firmed near 1.3300 amid steady UK-EU engagement, though trading stayed quiet before the BoE meeting. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen recovered, with USD/JPY falling below 159.00 as attention turns to Japan’s trade data and the BoJ policy meeting.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC