- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.40-31.42 this morning, supportive level at 31.30 resistance level at 31.50
- SET Index: 1,250.1 (-0.54%), 18 Dec 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,774.8 (+0.8%), 18 Dec 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.6893(-0.55 bps), 18 Dec 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.12 (-4.0 bps), 18 Dec 2025
- US consumer prices increase less than expected in November
- ECB keeps rates unchanged, turns more positive on economy
- Bank of England cuts rates in tight vote
- Japan’s core inflation steady in November, stays above BOJ target
- Dollar steady as markets look through softer CPI
US consumer prices increase less than expected in November
Year-on-year CPI prints were notably softer than expected, with headline inflation rising 2.7%, well below the 3.1% forecast and down from 3.0% in September, while core CPI increased 2.6%, also beneath the 3.0% forecast and prior reading. The weakness appears largely driven by BLS sampling distortions related to the government shutdown: October prices were assumed to be unchanged for most items, and delayed November data collection coincided with Black Friday discounting.
ECB keeps rates unchanged, turns more positive on economy
The ECB held policy rates steady, as expected, with the Marginal Lending Rate at 2.40%, the Refinancing Rate at 2.15% and the Deposit Rate at 2.00%, while reaffirming a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. The Bank revised up its 2026 inflation outlook, largely due to a slower projected easing in services inflation, and emphasized that it is not pre-committing to any rate path. President Lagarde said policy is in a “good place” but not static, highlighting the unanimous decision, full retention of optionality, the absence of forward guidance, and confirmation that neither rate hikes nor cuts were discussed at this meeting.
Bank of England cuts rates in tight vote
The BoE cut the Bank Rate by 25bps to 3.75%, as expected, in a narrow 5–4 vote, with Bailey, Breeden, Dhingra, Ramsden and Taylor backing the cut, while Greene, Lombardelli, Mann and Pill preferred to hold. The Bank reiterated that rates are likely to continue on a gradual downward path, noting that policy restrictiveness has eased as rates have been lowered, but cautioned that—absent new shocks—decisions on further easing will become a closer call given uncertainty around the neutral rate and the more limited scope for cuts, potentially implying a slower pace over time. Governor Bailey said he is encouraged by progress in returning inflation to target, stressed that policy remains restrictive, and noted that while cuts will continue, the pace is likely to moderate, with CPI expected to fall close to the 2% target by April/May 2026.
Japan’s core inflation steady in November, stays above BOJ target
Japan’s core CPI rose 3.0% Y/Y in November, matching forecasts and holding above the BoJ’s 2% target for the 44th month. Overall CPI climbed 2.9%, with energy-driven gains supporting prices after utility subsidy cuts, while a deeper measure excluding energy eased slightly to 3%.
Dollar steady as markets look through softer CPI
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.683, -0.55 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.667, -0.50 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.12, -4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.47, moving in a range of 31.40 – 31.42 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.30 – 31.50 today. The dollar was little changed despite softer CPI, with core at 2.6% Y/Y and headline at 2.7% Y/Y, while jobless claims were largely in line. The euro slipped after failing to hold post-ECB gains amid higher 2026 inflation and growth forecasts. The British pound was flat following the BoE’s 25bp rate cut in a narrow 5–4 vote, with limited scope for further easing. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen gained modestly as focus turns to a widely expected 25bp BoJ hike to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
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