- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.265-32.27 this morning, supportive level at 32.20 resistance level at 32.40
- SET Index: 1,268.8 (+1.27%), 25 Nov 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,765.9 (+0.90%), 25 Nov 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.656 (-1.62 bps), 25 Nov 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.01 (-3.0 bps), 25 Nov 2025
- US producer price index rises on higher energy, food costs
- US retail sales rise by less than anticipated in September
- US consumer confidence falls by most since April
- Thailand’s trade deficit hits highest level since 2023
- Dollar falls on soft US data
US producer price index rises on higher energy, food costs
Headline PPI rose 0.3% in September as expected, lifting the Y/Y rate to 2.7%, while Core PPI increased a softer 0.1% and eased to 2.6% Y/Y. Super-core slowed to 0.1% M/M. Economists noted that tariff-related inflation remains modest and services inflation is still cooling. PCE-linked components were mixed.
US retail sales rise by less than anticipated in September
September’s delayed retail report came in softer than expected, with headline sales rising just 0.2% (vs. 0.4% expected and 0.6% prior), while the key retail control group unexpectedly slipped 0.1%. Ex-autos sales rose 0.3% in line with forecasts, and ex-gas/autos edged up only 0.1%. Gains were driven by miscellaneous stores and gasoline stations, while declines in sporting goods, clothing, and non-store retailers weighed on the total—Economists attributing the latter largely to seasonal adjustment distortions tied to major online sales events.
US consumer confidence falls by most since April
November consumer confidence slumped to 88.7 from 94.6, well below expectations and the weakest since April, with all components softening. The Present Situation Index fell to 126.9 and Expectations dropped to 63.2. The Conference Board said consumers grew less confident about current business and labour market conditions, while views on future business, jobs, and income prospects also turned more pessimistic.
Thailand’s trade deficit hits highest level since 2023
In October 2025, Thailand’s exports reached US$28.83 billion, up 5.7% year-on-year, while excluding oil, gold, and military goods, growth surged to 15.7%. Imports rose 16.3% to US$32.27 billion, resulting in a US$3.43 billion trade deficit. Strong electronics, automotive, and industrial exports drove growth, though agricultural exports fell 5.1%. In the first ten months, total exports grew 13.0% to US$282.98 billion, with imports at US$286.84 billion, leaving a US$3.86 billion deficit. Major markets like the US, China, and the EU remained strong, while CLMV countries contracted 15.6%.
Dollar falls on soft US data
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.656, -1.62 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.629, -2.02 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.01, -3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.35, moving in a range of 32.265 – 32.27 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.20 – 32.40 today. The dollar broadly weakened on softer-than-expected US data, including retail sales, consumer confidence, and core PPI, alongside upbeat Ukraine-Russia news and mixed reports on NEC Director Hassett’s Fed Chair prospects. The euro rose above 1.1500, supported by the weaker dollar and ECB’s Makhlouf noting service and food inflation concerns. The British pound gained ahead of the Budget on leaks of a minimum-wage hike and no VAT cuts on energy, while the Japanese yen strengthened, with USD/JPY briefly falling to 156 as US yields eased.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
--------------------------------
