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Daily Market Insight: 20 October 2025

20 Oct 2025
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 32.795-32.86 this morning, supportive level at 32.65 resistance level at 32.90
  • SET Index: 1,274.6 (-1.31%), 17 Oct 2025
  • S&P 500 Index: 6,664.0 (+0.53%), 17 Oct 2025
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.627 (+2.58 bps), 17 Oct 2025
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 4.02 (+3.0 bps), 17 Oct 2025

 

  • Trump says high tariffs on China are ‘not sustainable’
  • Eurozone consumer inflation confirmed at 2.2% annually in September
  • S&P downgrades France in unscheduled review, flags fiscal risks
  • LDP, Ishin strike coalition deal in Japan
  • Dollar index slightly firmer on improved sentiment

 

Trump says high tariffs on China are ‘not sustainable’

President Donald Trump stated that maintaining high tariffs on China was not a sustainable strategy as tensions between the world’s two largest economies continued to escalate. Trump, alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, voiced optimism that the upcoming negotiations with Beijing could pave the way for a broader trade agreement to ease the crisis. He also signaled confidence that his planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping would proceed as scheduled and expressed hope that it could lead to a durable resolution on trade.

 

Eurozone consumer inflation confirmed at 2.2% annually in September

Eurozone consumer price inflation rose 2.2% year-on-year in September, leaving the ECB with limited incentive to ease policy further. The increase, up from 2.0% in August, matched the flash estimate released earlier this month. On a monthly basis, CPI gained 0.1%, mirroring the previous month’s rise. Meanwhile, core inflation in the eurozone rose to 2.4% year-on-year in September, up from 2.3% in August, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain persistent.

 

S&P downgrades France in unscheduled review, flags fiscal risks

S&P Global Ratings cut France’s credit rating to A+ from AA-, citing “elevated” fiscal uncertainty despite its 2025 draft budget. The downgrade, leaving France with only one double-A rating, could trigger forced bond sales. S&P sees the deficit narrowing to just 5.3% next year and warned of further cuts if fiscal or growth conditions worsen. Moody’s review is due next week, with a stable outlook for now.

 

LDP, Ishin strike coalition deal in Japan

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) have reached a broad agreement to form a coalition government, paving the way for the country’s first female prime minister, Kyodo News reported Sunday. LDP leader Sanae Takaichi and Ishin chief Hirofumi Yoshimura are expected to sign a formal alliance on Monday. Ishin lawmakers will back Takaichi in Tuesday’s parliamentary vote but will not initially join the cabinet. In return, the LDP pledged to pursue a ban on corporate and organizational donations and to exempt food items from Japan’s sales tax.

 

Dollar index slightly firmer on improved sentiment

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.627, +2.58 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.618, +2.94 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.02, +3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.59, moving in a range of 32.795 – 32.86 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.65 – 32.90 today. The dollar index edged higher on Friday as concerns over US regional banks eased after earnings reports showed no further credit deterioration tied to alleged fraud. Sentiment improved further after President Trump reaffirmed a meeting with China’s President Xi in two weeks and indicated that high tariffs on China would not remain. Despite reduced credit concerns, Thursday’s dovish Fed repricing persisted, with markets still fully pricing in 50bps of rate cuts by year-end. Meanwhile, Fed officials Musalem and Kashkari offered contrasting tones on policy outlook.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC