- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.55-32.62 this morning, supportive level at 32.50 resistance level at 32.70
- SET Index: 1,266.4 (-1.61%), 14 Oct 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,644.3 (-0.16%), 14 Oct 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.524 (-1.04 bps), 14 Oct 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.03 (-2.0 bps), 14 Oct 2025
- Powell signals more cuts amid weak hiring
- US-China trade frictions continue
- UK unemployment rises and wages cool, spurring rate cut bets
- Bank of Thailand sees inflation missing target through 2026
- Dollar weakens amid renewed trade tensions
Powell signals more cuts amid weak hiring
Fed Chair Powell said alternative data show little change in the Fed’s outlook since September but flagged rising labor market risks, including slower hiring and weaker payroll gains. He warned that longer policy lags could make delayed action more painful for jobs, reinforcing expectations for up to two more rate cuts this year and a potential shift to neutral as risks balance. Powell also signaled the balance sheet runoff may end soon to ease money market strains. He acknowledged stronger macro data but noted it contrasts with softening labor indicators, while the Fed remains cautious on tariff-driven inflation.
US-China trade frictions continue
US President Trump said he is considering restricting trade with China involving cooking oil and other goods in retaliation for Beijing’s refusal to buy US soybeans. Meanwhile, China imposed sanctions on five US-based subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, accusing them of supporting Washington’s curbs on Chinese maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, and warned of further retaliatory measures ahead of expected trade talks.
UK unemployment rises and wages cool, spurring rate cut bets
The jobless rate climbed to 4.8% in the three months to August, the highest since May 2021, defying expectations for no change. Private sector wage growth slowed to 4.4%, the weakest since late 2021 and below forecasts of 4.5%. The data point to a softening labor market ahead of the Nov. 26 budget and may bolster dovish MPC members seeking to keep rate-cut prospects on the table.
Bank of Thailand sees inflation missing target through 2026
An open letter to Thailand’s finance minister warns that consumer inflation will remain below 1% until early 2027, with monetary policy alone unlikely to solve the problem. Key challenges include declining competitiveness and tighter financial conditions from rising credit risk. The letter argues low inflation poses no price stability risk and isn’t the main cause of sluggish growth, urging monetary policy to be complemented by targeted measures.
Dollar weakens amid renewed trade tensions
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.524, -1.04 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.502, -0.78 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.03, -2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.66, moving in a range of 32.55 – 32.62 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.50 – 32.70 today. The dollar weakened as US-China trade tensions flared, with Beijing imposing countermeasures on five US-linked firms and probing the impact of US 301 tariffs, while Trump threatened trade restrictions on cooking oil and other goods in retaliation for China’s lack of US soybean purchases. Fed Chair Powell also signaled the Fed may soon end balance sheet runoff. The euro initially dipped on weak German ZEW data but rebounded as the dollar softened, while ECB remarks had little market impact. The British pound was slightly lower after a surprise rise in UK unemployment but recovered most losses. The Japanese yen strengthened as risk aversion from equity swings and trade tensions boosted haven demand.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
