- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.405-32.425 this morning, supportive level at 32.30 resistance level at 32.50
- SET Index: 1,293.6 (+0.4%), 3 Oct 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,715.8 (+0.01%), 3 Oct 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.400 (-1.07 bps), 3 Oct 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.13 (+3.0 bps), 3 Oct 2025
- US ISM services drops on weakest activity since 2020
- Fed flags tariff inflation risk, downplays missing jobs data
- Sanae Takaichi poised to become Japan’s first female PM
- Dollar ends week on a weaker note
US ISM services drops on weakest activity since 2020
The ISM Services PMI softened in September, with the headline index falling to 50.0 from 52.0 in August. This was below the 51.7 consensus and even undercut the most pessimistic forecasts. The decline was driven by a sharp drop in new orders, which fell to 50.4 from 56.0, while business activity slipped into contraction at 49.9 from 55.0. Prices paid remained elevated at 69.4, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressure, and the employment component stayed in contractionary territory at 47.2, though slightly above August’s 46.5. The report noted generally weak or moderate growth, with hiring constrained by delayed recruitment and difficulties in finding qualified staff.
Fed flags tariff inflation risk, downplays missing jobs data
Vice Chair Jefferson noted that while missing the report was not ideal, decisions are based on a wide range of indicators. He also highlighted that rising tariffs are already contributing to inflation in some goods and could further impact inflation, employment, and economic activity in the coming months. Governor Miran expressed hope that sufficient data would be available by the October FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, Fed’s Logan voiced concern over persistent inflation in non-housing services and warned that tariffs could have a more prolonged effect on goods prices, posing risks to long-term inflation expectations.
Sanae Takaichi poised to become Japan’s first female PM
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has elected former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi as its new leader, paving the way for her to become the country’s next prime minister following a parliamentary confirmation vote anticipated in mid-October. Her win marks a historic milestone as she becomes the LDP’s first female president and is poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister, given the party’s dominant position in parliament and the fragmented state of the opposition. In addition, newly Japan’s new LDP leader Takaichi called for urgent support for small businesses, farms, and healthcare, proposed scrapping the extra gas tax, and didn’t rule out a consumption tax cut. She also stressed the need for close coordination with the BoJ and a possible review of their policy accord.
Dollar ends week on a weaker note
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.400, -1.07 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.401, -0.35 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.13, +3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.44, moving in a range of 32.405 – 32.425 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.30 – 32.50 today. The dollar ended the week weaker, settling near the midpoint of Friday’s narrow trading range between 97.601 and 97.949. As with previous days following the government shutdown, market activity lacked a clear narrative. While services PMI data were released—S&P Global’s final reading was revised higher and ISM’s headline came in lower than expected—neither had a significant impact on price action. Meanwhile, several Fed officials spoke throughout the day, though offered little new insight—Governor Miran maintained a dovish stance, while Logan (a 2026 voter) leaned hawkish.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
