- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.43-32.46 this morning, supportive level at 32.30 resistance level at 32.55
- SET Index: 1,275.0 (+0.1%), 1 Oct 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,711.2 (+0.34%), 1 Oct 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.417 (-0.14 bps), 1 Oct 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.12 (-4.0 bps), 1 Oct 2025
- ADP report shows 32,000 job loss after benchmark revision
- US ISM manufacturing PMI rises in September but remains in contraction
- Fitch, S&P downplay US shutdown risks to rating and economy
- Eurozone inflation ticks up, supporting ECB rate pause
- Dollar mixed as shutdown begins, ADP jobs data disappoints
ADP report shows 32,000 job loss after benchmark revision
The ADP private payrolls report, closely watched due to the government shutdown, showed a sharp hiring slowdown. Private employers cut 32,000 jobs in September—well below expectations for a 50,000 gain—and August was revised from +54,000 to -3,000. A rebenchmark based on FY24 QCEW data further lowered September’s count by 43,000 jobs. Wage growth was mixed: pay for job stayers rose slightly to 4.5%, while job changers saw a drop to 6.6%. ADP’s economist noted that despite strong Q2 growth, employers remain cautious about hiring.
US ISM manufacturing PMI rises in September but remains in contraction
The ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.1 in September from 48.7, slightly above the 49.0 forecast, but remained in contraction for the seventh straight month. New orders dropped to 48.9 from 51.4, while backlogs rose to 46.2. supplier deliveries slowed, and prices paid eased to 61.9, below the 63.2 estimate. Employment improved modestly to 45.3. ISM’s economist noted the PMI’s gain was driven mainly by production growth, but declines in new orders and inventories outweighed that, signaling limited momentum. Some respondents cited ongoing tariff-related profit hits and supply issues, especially in chemicals and steel. Oxford adds that while lower rates, reduced political uncertainty, and fiscal stimulus may help, the effects on manufacturing will take time to materialize.
Fitch, S&P downplay US shutdown risks to rating and economy
Fitch said Wednesday it doesn’t anticipate the ongoing US government shutdown will impact the country’s sovereign credit rating in the near term, noting that any effect on economic growth would depend on how long and widespread the shutdown becomes. Separately, S&P Global ratings stated that shutdowns typically have limited impact on the overall economy and are not viewed as credit events for the US sovereign rating.
Eurozone inflation ticks up, supporting ECB rate pause
Euro-area inflation picked up in September, reinforcing the European Central Bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady for now. Headline CPI rose 2.2% year-over-year, up from 2.0% in August and in line with forecasts. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.1%, matching the prior month’s gain. Core inflation held steady at 2.3% annually. However, the uptick in inflation is seen as temporary, largely driven by base effects from energy prices, with the headline rate expected to resume its decline in October.
Dollar mixed as shutdown begins, ADP jobs data disappoints
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.417, -0.14 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.410, +0.74 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.12, -4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.44, moving in a range of 32.43 – 32.46 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.30 – 32.55 today. The dollar saw mixed performance on Wednesday as markets reacted to the US government shutdown and a surprise negative ADP report. Safe-haven demand favored the Japanese yen, while the other G10 FX also gained, with the Japanese yen leading. Meanwhile, the euro was little changed against the dollar, as Eurozone inflation data had minimal impact on the currency pair.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
