- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.90-31.93 this morning, supportive level at 31.80 resistance level at 32.00
- SET Index: 1,297.0 (-0.7%), 18 Sep 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,632.0 (+0.48%), 18 Sep 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.369 (-4.53 bps), 18 Sep 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.11 (+5.0 bps), 18 Sep 2025
- Initial jobless claims drop, beating forecasts and previous figures
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index sees unexpected surge
- Japan inflation cools sharply on subsidies ahead of BOJ decision
- BOE holds rates at 4%, keeps cautious stance on future cuts
- Dollar extends rally after upbeat economic releases
Initial jobless claims drop, beating forecasts and previous figures
Initial jobless claims fell to 231k from 264k, below the 240k consensus, while the four-week average held steady at 240k. Continued claims edged down to 1.92mln from 1.93mln, also beating expectations. Unadjusted claims dropped 10k to 194k, versus a 17k expected decline, while unadjusted continued claims fell 51k to 1.753mln. The data eases labor market concerns after last week’s spike, which is now seen as a one-off—possibly driven by fraudulent claims in Texas, where filings dropped 5k this week after a 15k surge.
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index sees unexpected surge
The Philly Fed manufacturing index surprised to the upside, jumping to 23.2 in September from -0.3—the highest reading since January and well above the 2.5 consensus, exceeding the top end of forecasts. New orders returned to positive territory at 12.4 (prev. -1.9), and shipments surged to 26.1 (prev. 4.1). Employment was steady at 5.6, while price pressures eased notably, with prices paid falling to 46.8 (prev. 66.8) and prices received dropping to 18.8 (prev. 35.8).
Japan inflation cools sharply on subsidies ahead of BOJ decision
Japan’s consumer inflation slowed sharply in August due to government utility subsidies but remained well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, just hours before the central bank’s policy decision. Core CPI (ex-fresh food) rose 2.7% y/y, down from 3.1% in July and the slowest pace since November, in line with forecasts. The narrower core measure (ex-fresh food and energy) dipped slightly to 3.3% from 3.4%, highlighting persistent underlying price pressures.
BOE holds rates at 4%, keeps cautious stance on future cuts
The BOE held the Bank Rate at 4.0% in a 7-2 vote, as expected, with Dhingra and Taylor dissenting in favor of a 25bps cut, citing ongoing disinflation and recession risks. The majority judged no new data warranted a move, balancing upside inflation risks against weaker demand. The MPC still expects CPI to peak at 4% in September and reaffirmed that a “gradual and careful” approach to policy remains appropriate. Markets now see the BoE remaining cautious, with just 9bps of easing priced by year-end and a full 25bps cut not expected until April 2026. On QT, the MPC voted 7-2 to slow the pace to £70bn (from £100bn), with active sales rising to £21bn and a shift in gilt sales toward shorter maturities—offering some relief to the Treasury.
Dollar extends rally after upbeat economic releases
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.369, -4.53 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.358, -3.34 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.11, +5.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.84, moving in a range of 31.90 – 31.93 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.80 – 32.00 today. The dollar extended its post-Powell gains, supported by a sharp drop in initial jobless claims and a strong Philly Fed print. The euro failed to hold an early rebound, sliding back below 1.1800 amid broad dollar strength. The British pound also softened, with little reaction to the BoE’s 7-2 decision to hold rates at 4.00% and slow QT to £70bn from £100bn, both in line with expectations. The Japanese yen weakened, pushing USD/JPY back toward 148.00, as markets await key Japanese CPI data and the upcoming BoJ decision.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
