- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.82-31.85 this morning, supportive level at 31.75 resistance level at 31.95
- SET Index: 1,306.7 (-0.1%), 17 Sep 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,600.4 (-0.10%), 17 Sep 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.414 (-7.67 bps), 17 Sep 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.06 (+2.0 bps), 17 Sep 2025
- Fed lowers interest rates, signals more cuts ahead
- Powell signals cautious hawkishness
- UK inflation stable at highest level since early 2024 in August
- Indonesia’s central bank cuts interest rates for third straight month
- Dollar rebounds amid post-Fed volatility
Fed lowers interest rates, signals more cuts ahead
The Fed cut rates by 25bps to 4.00–4.25%, as widely expected, citing a shift in the balance of risks. Notably, Bowman and Waller aligned with the consensus for a 25bps cut, while new Governor Miran dissented in favor of a larger 50bps move. The updated dot plot showed a divided outlook: 9 of 19 officials see two more cuts in 2025, 2 see one cut, and 6 expect no further reductions. The Fed also tweaked its forward guidance, removing specific language around the “extent and timing” of future adjustments, signaling a more cautious, data-dependent stance. On the labor market, the tone softened, with the description no longer calling conditions “solid.” Instead, the Fed noted that unemployment has edged up but remains low, and that job gains have slowed, while inflation has moved higher and remains elevated.
Powell signals cautious hawkishness
Fed Chair Powell was more hawkish than the statement and dot plots suggested. He emphasized that the SEP projections are not a fixed path, noting the close split among officials on rate cuts this year. Powell described the recent 25bps cut as a “risk management” move, with no broad support for a 50bps cut, and said the Fed doesn’t need to move quickly on rates. He stressed a meeting-by-meeting, data-driven approach and highlighted growing downside risks to the labor market, which remains the priority. Powell acknowledged inflation pressures from tariffs as likely temporary and said policy is shifting toward neutrality to better support jobs.
UK inflation stable at highest level since early 2024 in August
UK inflation held steady at a 1½-year high in August, likely keeping the Bank of England cautious about rate cuts. Consumer prices rose 3.8% year-on-year, matching forecasts. Declines in airfares were offset by higher motor fuel and restaurant prices. Food inflation climbed to 4.8%, its highest since early 2024, while services inflation eased to 4.7%, still above the BOE’s comfort zone. Monthly inflation accelerated to 0.3% from 0.1%, with core CPI rising 0.3% monthly and 3.6% annually, slightly down from July’s 3.8%.
Indonesia’s central bank cuts interest rates for third straight month
Bank Indonesia surprised markets with a 25bps rate cut to 4.75%, extending its easing cycle for the third month despite political uncertainty, reinforcing its pro-growth and stability policy.
Dollar rebounds amid post-Fed volatility
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.414, -7.67 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.391, -6.89 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.06, +2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.75, moving in a range of 31.82 – 31.85 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.75 – 31.95 today. The dollar ultimately firmed following the FOMC, despite initial selling after the Fed delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut and projected two more cuts this year in the SEPs. The rebound came during Powell’s press conference, where his hawkish-leaning tone—emphasizing no rush to ease further, the need for more data, and framing the cut as a risk management move—helped support the dollar.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
