- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.81-31.825 this morning, supportive level at 31.75 resistance level at 31.95
- SET Index: 1,299.8 (+0.5%), 15 Sep 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,615.3 (+0.47%), 15 Sep 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.518 (+12.08 bps), 15 Sep 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.05 (-1.0 bps), 15 Sep 2025
- NY Empire State manufacturing index plummets
- China’s broad economic slowdown fuels stimulus bets
- China’s home prices extend decline, amplifying calls for more policy support
- Thailand weighs tax on gold trades to slow baht rally
- Dollar retreats as lower US yields weigh ahead of FOMC
NY Empire State manufacturing index plummets
The NY Fed Manufacturing Survey sharply disappointed in September, dropping to -8.7 from +11.9, marking the weakest print since April 2024 and falling below even the most pessimistic forecasts. The decline was driven by steep drops in new orders and shipments. Prices paid eased to 46.1, suggesting slower but still elevated input inflation. Meanwhile, employment was broadly unchanged, but hours worked dipped modestly.
China’s broad economic slowdown fuels stimulus bets
China’s economic activity slowed more than expected in August, reinforcing expectations for additional policy support to meet the official growth target. Industrial production rose 5.2% y/y, the weakest pace since August 2024, while retail sales growth slowed to 3.4% from 3.7% in July. Most notably, fixed-asset investment rose just 0.5% in the first eight months of the year — the second-weakest reading on record, trailing only 2020’s pandemic-hit levels.
China’s home prices extend decline, amplifying calls for more policy support
New-home prices in 70 major cities (excluding state-subsidized units) fell 0.3% m/m in August, little changed from the 0.31% drop in July. Existing home prices declined more sharply, down 0.58% from July after a 0.55% fall the prior month, signaling persistent weakness in the resale market despite recent policy easing in key cities.
Thailand weighs tax on gold trades to slow baht rally
Thai authorities are exploring a tax on physical gold transactions settled in baht to slow the baht’s recent appreciation, which is putting pressure on exports and tourism. The Bank of Thailand and Ministry of Finance are discussing measures targeting gold bought and sold through online platforms, with exemptions likely for US dollar trades, futures, and bullion shop purchases. Officials plan to engage gold traders to assess the impact on the currency and enhance transaction reporting. A final decision on the proposed levy, potentially implemented as a special business tax, will come after the new cabinet takes office.
Dollar retreats as lower US yields weigh ahead of FOMC
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.518, +12.08 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.500, +12.56 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.05, -1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.87, moving in a range of 31.81 – 31.825 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.75 – 31.95 today. The dollar softened at the start of the week, tracking a decline in US Treasury yields ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which remains the key risk event. While the NY Fed Manufacturing survey surprised to the downside, the release had limited market impact given its lower-tier status and the proximity of more consequential data, including retail sales. The euro firmed on the back of broad dollar weakness, further supported by ECB commentary suggesting policy rates are now appropriately calibrated. The British pound also advanced, with cable reclaiming the 1.3600 handle, despite limited domestic catalysts and with attention turning to the upcoming US Presidential visit. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen saw modest gains versus the greenback, underpinned by narrowing US-Japan yield differentials.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
