- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.08-32.12 this morning, supportive level at 32.00 resistance level at 32.20
- SET Index: 1,264.8 (+1.0%), 5 Sep 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,481.5 (-0.32%), 5 Sep 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.249 (-1.16 bps), 5 Sep 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.10 (-7.0 bps), 5 Sep 2025
- Weak US payroll gain of 22,000 cements case for Fed rate cut
- Japan’s PM Ishiba resigns, fueling political uncertainty
- OPEC+ accelerates return of halted oil supply
- Thailand names new PM amid ongoing political uncertainty
- Dollar drops as weak jobs data cements case for Fed rate cuts
Weak US payroll gain of 22,000 cements case for Fed rate cut
August’s nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000—well below the 75,000 forecast and down from July’s 79,000. Revisions cut another 21,000 jobs from prior months, with June’s figure revised to -13,000, marking the first negative print since 2020. Adjusted for revisions, three of the past four reports fall below the lower bound of the Fed’s estimated breakeven job growth. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, as expected, alongside a rise in the participation rate—adding to signs of labor market softness. Despite this, unemployment remains slightly below the Fed’s year-end projection, which will be updated on September 17. The report has solidified expectations for a 25bps rate cut this month.
Japan’s PM Ishiba resigns, fueling political uncertainty
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation after weeks of pressure following a second national election loss. His departure sets the stage for a leadership race likely to unsettle investors. The next prime minister will face major challenges, from global trade tensions to domestic frustration over rising living costs. Potential successors include Sanae Takaichi, Shinjiro Koizumi, and Takayuki Kobayashi.
OPEC+ accelerates return of halted oil supply
OPEC+ will begin easing its supply cuts in October, returning 137,000 barrels a day as part of a 1.65 million b/d tranche initially set to remain offline through next year. The group plans to gradually restore supply based on market conditions, with flexibility to pause or reverse the hikes if needed. The move marks a shift in strategy, as OPEC+ bets that higher volumes can offset potential revenue losses from lower prices.
Thailand names new PM amid ongoing political uncertainty
Thailand named its third prime minister since 2023, selecting conservative royalist Anutin Charnvirakul in a parliamentary vote. Anutin secured the role by pledging to call fresh elections within months and will lead a fragile minority government. The development highlights ongoing political instability, widely seen as a drag on Thailand’s economy and a factor in its regional underperformance.
Dollar drops as weak jobs data cements case for Fed rate cuts
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.249, -1.16 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.228, -1.59 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.10, -7.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.22, moving in a range of 32.08 – 32.12 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.00 – 32.20 today. The dollar ended the week lower, pressured by a weaker-than-expected US jobs report that reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut on September 17.Markets are now fully pricing in a 25bps cut. The soft print, alongside only a minor upward revision to July’s figure, triggered a dovish market response. Post-report, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (2025 voter) remained undecided, stressing the need to assess inflation trends and whether the rise in services inflation is temporary. Meanwhile, G10 FX was mostly firmer, benefiting from dollar weakness.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
