- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.77-32.86 this morning supportive level at 32.75 resistance level at 33.00
- SET Index: 1,189.1 (+0.2%), 20 May 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,940.5 (-0.4%), 20 May 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.862 (-1.04 bps), 20 May 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.48 (+2.0 bps), 20 May 2025
- Canada inflation lowest since September after carbon tax removal
- The RBA delivered a ‘dovish’ rate cut
- Chinese banks cut benchmark lending rates after PBOC easing
- Thai Banks see NPL rise, lending drop in Q1
- Tax bill weighs on dollar
Canada inflation lowest since September after carbon tax removal
Canadian inflation slowed to its lowest rate since September, driven by the removal of the consumer carbon tax and declining oil prices, although core inflation measures picked up. The CPI rose by 1.7% year-over-year in April, down from 2.3% in March and slightly above expectations. On a monthly basis, the index fell 0.1%, compared to the projected 0.2% decline. Meanwhile, core inflation accelerated to a 3.2% annual rate, up from 2.9% in March and surpassing forecasts.
The RBA delivered a ‘dovish’ rate cut
The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bps to 3.85% as expected, citing moderating inflation and an uncertain outlook. It emphasized its focus on keeping inflation low and noted that inflation risks are now more balanced. The RBA sees headline inflation rising toward the top of its target band as temporary factors fade, and remains cautious amid uncertainty around demand and supply. In its quarterly statement, the RBA flagged global trade tensions and US tariff policies as key risks, and slightly downgraded global growth and core domestic inflation forecasts. In addition, Governor Bullock indicated readiness for further rate cuts if needed, noting slower price increases. She described the 25bps cut as confident, with discussions around a 25bps or 50bps cut. Bullock also stated it's uncertain where the cash rate will end up and did not endorse market expectations.
Chinese banks cut benchmark lending rates after PBOC easing
Chinese banks lowered their benchmark lending rates for the first time in seven months, following the People’s Bank of China’s earlier move. The one-year rate was cut to 3% from 3.1%, and the five-year rate to 3.5% from 3.6%, as expected.
Thai Banks see NPL rise, lending drop in Q1
The Bank of Thailand reported that non-performing loans (NPLs) at Thai banks rose to 2.90% of outstanding loans by the end of March, up from 2.78% in December. At the same time, bank lending declined by 1.3% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, following a 0.4% drop in the previous quarter.
Tax bill weighs on dollar
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.862, -1.04 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.860, -0.98 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.48, +2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.15, moving in a range of 32.77 – 32.86 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.75 – 33.00 today. The US dollar continued its recent downward trend, with the index approaching the 100.00 level, despite a lack of new catalysts or economic data from the US Attention stayed on trade issues and Trump’s tax bill, though there were no significant new developments in either area, and recent comments from the Federal Reserve had little impact on market sentiment. The euro gained support from the weaker dollar but experienced some volatility. Meanwhile, various ECB officials made statements, including Knot, who highlighted that the medium-term inflation outlook remains too uncertain to determine if a rate cut will be necessary in June. The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar, with USD/JPY remaining below the 145.00 mark due to weakness in the dollar and a prevailing risk-off sentiment in the markets.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
