- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.14-33.25 this morning supportive level at 33.10 resistance level at 33.40
- SET Index: 1,195.8 (+0.1%), 16 May 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,958.4 (+0.7%), 16 May 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.867 (-1.59 bps), 16 May 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.43 (-2.0 bps), 16 May 2025
- US consumer sentiment near record low amid inflation worries
- Moody’s downgrades US, ending last top credit rating
- Japan’s economy shrinks for the first time in a year, ahead of tariff impact
- The dollar ended the week with strength
US consumer sentiment near record low amid inflation worries
The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment data for May came in below expectations. Sentiment fell sharply to 50.8 from 52.2, with forecasts at 53.4. Current conditions declined to 57.6 from 59.8, and expectations dropped to 46.5 from 47.3, missing the 48.0 forecast and falling below the expected range. Inflation expectations rose significantly, with the 1-year outlook jumping to 7.3 percent from 6.5 percent, and the 5-year outlook increasing to 4.6 percent from 4.4 percent. While most index components held steady, assessments of personal finances dropped nearly 10 percent due to weakening incomes. Mentions of tariffs rose to nearly 75 percent of consumers, up from 60 percent in April, with trade policy uncertainty continuing to weigh on sentiment.
Moody’s downgrades US, ending last top credit rating
Moody’s ratings has downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, pointing to growing concerns over the nation’s rising debt and persistent budget deficits. The agency warned that these fiscal challenges could undermine the US’s appeal as a global investment hub and lead to higher borrowing costs. The downgrade reflects the impact of policies from successive administrations and Congress, which have contributed to sustained budget shortfalls—currently nearing $2 trillion annually—and a national debt that now exceeds the size of the economy.
Japan’s economy shrinks for the first time in a year, ahead of tariff impact
Japan’s economy contracted for the first time in a year, highlighting its vulnerability even before feeling the full effects of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Real GDP shrank by 0.7% in the first quarter of the year on an annualized basis, slightly worse than the expected 0.3% decline. This leaves the economy at risk of slipping into a technical recession this quarter, depending on the impact of US tariffs. A decline in exports and a surge in imports led to a negative net trade impact on the economy in the first quarter, following a strong boost in the previous quarter. Consumer spending, which represents about half of the economy, remained largely unchanged, as consumption continues to lag behind pre-pandemic levels due to inflation eroding purchasing power.
The dollar ended the week with strength
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.867, -1.59 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.866, -1.20 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.43, -2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.16, moving in a range of 33.14 – 33.25 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.10 – 33.40 today. The dollar showed slight strength to close the week, despite limited news flow, even with a range of US data, including initial May metrics. Meanwhile, most G10 currencies weakened against the dollar, although the Antipodean currencies remained stable, with the Swiss franc underperforming.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
